ASML and its suppliers walk a tightrope as growth prospects remain shrouded

ASML finds itself in an increasingly awkward position. Having previously underestimated demand, the Dutch lithography giant and its vast supply chain have been preparing for an upswing that’s proving increasingly elusive as macroeconomic headwinds and geopolitical turmoil muddy the waters.

In its second-quarter results, ASML maintained an optimistic tone regarding long-term fundamentals, reaffirming a previously issued forecast of 44-60 billion euros in revenue for 2030. But this bullish vision clashes with a backdrop of near-term caution. CEO Christophe Fouquet pointed to growing “uncertainty” tied to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, particularly US tariffs. “Therefore, while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage,” Fouquet said.