You read it in our interview with Martin van den Brink: he doesn’t see an impending break in the trend characterized by Moore’s Law. Others are less optimistic. A brief summary of the major arguments.
Moore’s Law will end:
– The increase in IC performance has been flagging since the start of this century. Thermal issues have kept clock speeds from increasing at more than a trickle (or even at all). Multicore enhances performance in theory, but it can’t be fully utilized in practice.
– The company that makes the most complex IC technology, Intel, is no longer able to keep up the every-two-years pace. Its 10-nanometre chips should have come on the market in 2016, but their introduction has been pushed back to late 2017. That points to increasing complexity.
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