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ASML not immune to downcycle after all

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ASML’s growth streak falters, though the company anticipates a hectic upswing in 2025.

ASML’s seemingly unstoppable growth is – temporarily – grinding to a halt. While the chip equipment maker still expects to grow 30 percent this year, it doesn’t think it can do better than matching 2023’s revenue next year. “We expect 2024 to be a transition year. But we also look at 2024 as an important year to prepare for the significant growth that we expect for 2025,” comments CEO Peter Wennink.

The semiconductor industry has been in a slump for more than a year. Inflation and macroeconomic uncertainty have been holding back recovery, although customers are telling Wennink that the industry is now closing in on an inflection point. However, as uncertainty about the shape and slope of demand recovery prevails, chipmakers continue pushing out equipment purchases. Geopolitical tensions – the US announced new export restrictions a day before ASML published its Q3 results – are contributing to the market’s skepticism as well.

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