Future Horizons sees a highly uncertain year ahead for the global semiconductor industry, projecting market growth of plus or minus 12 percent in 2026. According to the research firm’s latest market update, the 22 percent growth recorded in 2025 was narrowly concentrated and not indicative of a broad-based industry recovery. If AI infrastructure demand falters and traditional markets like smartphones and automotive fail to rebound, the semicon sector could face a sharp downturn this year, says Future Horizons.
Compounding concerns are unresolved questions about when unit shipments will recover, whether ASPs can continue rising and how over-investment in legacy-node fabs, especially in China, will impact the market. The research firm compares the current AI boom to the pandemic-induced spike of 2020-2021, cautioning that just as that cycle ended abruptly, this one could too.
TSMC, the world’s largest chip manufacturer, this week struck a significantly more optimistic tone, stating the AI boom is “real” and AI-driven demand will continue “for many years to come, no matter what.”
