Global semiconductor capital spending is set to increase to 200 billion dollars in 2026, a 20 percent increase from 2025, according to Semiconductor Intelligence estimates. The growth follows a 7 percent rise to 166 billion dollars in 2025, signaling renewed investment momentum across the industry.
TSMC remains the dominant investor, projecting 52-56 billion dollars in capex for 2026, up as much as 37 percent year-on-year. In contrast, most other foundries expect flat or declining spending. Notable exception is Globalfoundries, which plans a sharp increase.
Memory manufacturers will account for the largest share of 2026 capex at 45 percent. Samsung is set to spend around 40 billion dollars on semiconductor capex alone, while Micron and SK Hynix are both expected to boost spending by more than 40 percent. The surge reflects the central role of memory in AI workloads, which increasingly dominate semiconductor demand.
Meanwhile, integrated device manufacturers continue to pull back, with capex expected to decline another 9 percent in 2026 after a steep drop in 2025. Intel’s spending is forecast to remain flat or decrease further, while Texas Instruments is scaling down investments in line with market conditions.
Overall, the capex-to-market ratio is projected to fall to 19 percent, which historically is below average. This suggests that despite strong spending growth, the industry may not be heading toward overcapacity.
