Even if Japan’s Rapidus is a long shot, it may be the Old Continent’s best chance of reviving leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing.
Earlier this month, Rapidus started dialing in its 2nm process. The first complete test wafers are expected by July, after which the Japanese government-backed foundry plans on releasing process design kits, enabling customers to test the process technology built on the research from IBM and Imec. The start of mass production is scheduled for 2027.
If Rapidus can manage to pull this off, even with some delays, it would be nothing short of a miracle. IBM and Imec offer the equivalent of a rough diamond, which requires meticulous cutting and polishing before it can be sold. While the processing of diamonds is considered extremely difficult, a seasoned stone cutter will encounter few nasty surprises. Commercial semiconductor manufacturing, by comparison, is black magic. Even an established firm, employing an experienced engineering force brimming with tacit knowledge, would struggle to skip a few nodes. Rapidus is essentially leaping straight onto the leading edge, blindfolded.
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