Forecasts for the wafer fab equipment market keep moving higher as AI infrastructure investments accelerate. Two market researchers, UBS and Susquehanna, expect the market to reach 250 billion dollars by 2028, up from an estimated 145-150 billion dollars this year. More conservative estimates include Morgan Stanley projecting 215 billion dollars in 2028 and Citigroup and Mizuho expecting around 190 billion dollars in 2027.
Not all these projections include Tesla’s Terafab project, which could set off an additional wave of investment. This project could create another 30-70 billion dollars of wafer fab equipment demand in 2027 and 2028.
Susquehanna argues that the latest upward revision isn’t driven solely by higher shipment volumes. According to the investment firm, leading chipmakers are paying premiums to secure equipment deliveries for 2027 and 2028, pushing average selling prices higher and extending supplier backlogs beyond one year.
